AGP Executive Report

Strait of Hormuz & Iran-linked energy squeeze: Iranian crude exports reportedly hit a six-year low in May, with shipping data pointing to the U.S. naval blockade and wider Strait disruptions that also keep oil supply tight and raise costs. Food & climate pressure: Asia’s dry weather is already hurting crop planting, and an expected strong El Niño could worsen drought—on top of fertilizer and diesel shortages tied to the Iran war. Aviation fuel crunch: Airlines are bracing for higher jet fuel costs and supply fears at the IATA summit, with the Iran conflict and Hormuz risks feeding into route detours and emissions pressure. Policy & climate rights: The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution reinforcing states’ climate obligations after an ICJ advisory opinion, framing climate action as a human-rights duty. Local environment & health: In El Nido, authorities kept a swimming ban in Bacuit Bay while pushing faster wastewater management after untreated discharges were found. Public debate on climate costs: In the U.S. state of Washington, lawmakers renewed calls to pause climate-linked fuel charges, arguing they raise pump prices—an echo of how energy shocks are colliding with climate policy.

Strait of Hormuz & shipping risk: Iran says it will charge ships for services during transit through Hormuz—navigation, rescue, security/protection and environmental cleanup if pollution occurs—while the wider Iran war continues to disrupt routes and raise costs. Energy shock & inflation: The US Fed’s “beige book” links recent US price pressure to Iran-war energy costs, with spillovers into shipping, groceries and fertilizer. Regional diplomacy: Qatar’s foreign minister discussed with Türkiye and Pakistan-backed mediation efforts to de-escalate US-Iran tensions and address root causes through dialogue. Gulf security: Jordan and Saudi Arabia condemned attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait and urged diplomatic steps to restore stability. Climate policy pushback: California and New York weakened climate rules amid rising energy prices tied to the Iran war, as advocates warn “affordability” arguments will worsen both climate and cost-of-living pressures. Aviation decarbonisation: IATA pledged closer work with ICAO to track sustainable aviation fuels transparently, as airlines face jet-fuel strain from the Iran conflict.

Strait of Hormuz & energy security: Iran-US tensions are again rattling global markets as diplomacy stays fragile and oil prices react to renewed strikes and uncertainty around a possible ceasefire framework. Food & climate impacts: Dry weather linked to an expected strong El Niño is disrupting crop planting across Asia, with hot-dry conditions hitting wheat, rice and other staples—on top of fertilizer and diesel shortages worsened by the Iran war. Iran war’s ripple effects on costs: The OECD warns Middle East disruption could slow global growth sharply in 2026, driven by higher energy and fertiliser costs and shipping route disruptions. Regional ceasefire diplomacy: Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire conditioned on a complete cessation of Hezbollah fire and withdrawal of Hezbollah operatives from the southern Litani sector, with pilot zones for the Lebanese army. Iran-linked environmental governance: Iran’s top environment official condemned US-Israeli attacks on protected areas, highlighting risks to biodiversity and conservation amid the wider conflict.

Climate Risk Watch: Scientists warn this year’s El Niño could intensify into a “Super El Niño,” with stronger, longer droughts, floods, cyclones and extreme heat—made worse by climate change and already-stressed food systems. Food & Water Security: Morocco locust swarms are reported sweeping eastern Iran, threatening grain and fruit crops and livestock feed; authorities have sprayed pesticides and urged farmers to avoid harvesting to limit contamination. Iran’s Environment Under Pressure: Iran’s water crisis is entering a sixth consecutive year of shortages, with drought and shifting weather linked to the locust surge. Regional Spillover: The Iran war is also worsening fuel and fertilizer shortages globally, raising the stakes for climate-driven shocks to agriculture and forests. Coastal Livelihoods: In the Philippines, El Niño-linked declines in fisheries output and rising fuel costs are hitting small-scale fishermen hard, while commercial vessels expand into municipal waters—an example of how climate and policy failures combine to deepen poverty.

Strait of Hormuz risk and energy costs: Iran halted message exchanges with the US via mediators after Israel’s Lebanon operations, while Trump said US-Iran talks are continuing; the renewed flare-up is keeping oil prices elevated and adding pressure to household energy bills, including a UK electricity price-cap rise from 24.67p/kWh to 26.11p/kWh from July, with EV charging costs expected to climb modestly. Regional escalation threat: Iran’s Quds Force commander warned that widening Gaza-Lebanon fronts could disrupt major maritime routes, raising the specter of “Hormuz-like” conditions for global shipping. Climate and disaster resilience push: BRICS Disaster Risk Reduction talks opened in Odisha’s Puri with Iran among participants, focusing on resilient infrastructure, anticipatory response, early warning systems, and nature-based solutions. Water and farming stress: Reports highlight how the Iran war is worsening Iran’s water crisis and forcing farmers to seek fertilizer alternatives as fuel, fertilizer, and freight costs feed through to farm-gate prices. EV momentum despite shocks: Australia data suggests EVs and hybrids reached nearly half of new vehicle sales in May, offering a pathway toward climate targets even as Middle East conflict keeps energy prices volatile.

Extreme Heat Watch: The UN weather agency warned El Niño is likely to intensify global temperatures, raising risks of heatwaves, drought, heavy rain and even ocean storms in the coming months. Wetland Protection: Iran’s Miqan wetland has started the process for Ramsar listing, with officials citing a surge in resident and migratory birds and warning that drying could worsen dust storms and air pollution. Strait of Hormuz & Shipping Impacts: Iran’s stance on Strait of Hormuz navigation services and tolls is back in focus as regional tensions continue to disrupt global shipping routes and energy flows. Lebanon War Spillover: Fighting around Lebanon’s border continues despite US-backed ceasefire efforts, keeping pressure on regional stability that also affects environmental and public-health conditions. Energy & Water Stress: Coverage highlights how the Iran war is worsening water and energy pressures, including electricity grid strain and the need for summer conservation planning. Climate Policy Pressure: Britain’s move toward a major emissions cut target by 2040 is framed as a way to reduce fossil-fuel price shocks that have been amplified by the Iran conflict.

Strait of Hormuz pressure: Oil markets are reacting to Iran–US tensions, but physical flows remain tight: Asia’s May crude arrivals via Hormuz fell sharply versus early-2026 levels, raising fears of refinery cutbacks and longer supply strain. Shipping risk: War-risk premiums for Gulf routes have jumped fast, with insurers recalculating voyage-by-voyage as attacks, airspace closures, and corridor disruptions threaten commercial shipping. Fertilizer & food impacts: Iran-war disruptions are pushing farmers toward alternatives as fertilizer costs surge; in Senegal, farmers are shifting to compost and manure to cope with higher prices and gas-linked supply shocks. Green ammonia pivot: India is reviewing green ammonia demand from fertilizer makers as West Asia conflict tightens conventional ammonia availability and raises import costs. Hormuz tolls & fees: Iran says it will charge environmental fees for ships passing Hormuz, adding another layer to maritime uncertainty. Lebanon ceasefire strain: Tehran says ceasefire violations are happening “on all fronts” and suspends indirect talks with Washington, while markets watch for any durable de-escalation. Local humanitarian strain: Charities report demand for food banks has spiked since the war began, with rising costs and falling donations.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran says it has suspended US talks after Israel’s Lebanon offensive, warning the ceasefire could unravel and pushing oil higher as markets price renewed risk around Hormuz. Maritime Safety: The UN shipping agency says thousands of seafarers remain stranded in the Gulf because crew transfers are too dangerous without a more permanent agreement. Environmental Risk at Sea: A cargo vessel near Iraq’s Umm Qasr was hit by a drone, sparking a fire—another reminder of how fast conflict can turn into pollution risk. Energy Shock Fallout: Reports link the Iran-war energy spike to higher borrowing costs and mortgage rates, while EU and others warn fertiliser shortages and wider food impacts could follow. Local Climate/Disaster Readiness: A BRICS disaster-risk meeting in Odisha (June 3–5) will focus on resilient infrastructure and early warning systems, reflecting how climate and conflict pressures are converging.

Strait of Hormuz & oil spillover: Oil jumped as US-Iran ceasefire talks and plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz stayed in focus, keeping energy prices jumpy and raising the stakes for regional shipping and climate-linked pollution risks. Iran’s infrastructure resilience: A report says Iran has reopened most of the underground missile tunnel entrances hit in recent strikes, underscoring how quickly Tehran can repair damage and how hard it is to fully disrupt key capabilities. Fertilizer & food systems: The Iran war is pushing farmers to replace chemical fertilizers with organic options like compost and cow dung as prices rise, with knock-on effects for yields and local ecosystems. Water stress in Iran: Coverage highlights Iran’s worsening water crisis and warns that without structural change, conditions could collapse further. Environmental safety in conflict zones: Separate reporting flags the environmental danger from sanctioned shadow oil tankers, warning of a major spill risk from aging, underinsured fleets. Local conservation angle: A dam-safety push argues for removing dangerous low-head dams to protect people and restore river life.

Aviation Fuel Shift: Europe is leaning harder into electro-Sustainable Aviation Fuel (e-SAF) as the Iran war tightens jet-fuel supply, with a Frankfurt plant turning hydrogen and CO2 into jet fuel and Brussels pushing blending rules to cut aviation emissions. Food & Fertilizer Shock: Farmers from Senegal to the Persian Gulf are switching away from chemical fertilizer as Strait of Hormuz disruptions raise prices and threaten yields, while UN warnings flag acute hunger risk if blockades persist. Strait of Hormuz Policy Pressure: Iran’s navigation and shipping rules keep evolving as talks drag on, with reports of new “Hormuz management” moves and fees that could reshape regional trade flows. Plastic Recycling Demand: Iran-war supply disruptions are boosting recycled PET demand in India, lifting r-PET sourcing as virgin material chains get squeezed. Water & Infrastructure: Repairs after a water main break show how basic services still face strain amid wider regional instability. Energy Security Politics: Malaysia is raising biodiesel blends to B15 to reduce imported diesel reliance, echoing a broader push for fuel resilience.

Hormuz Shipping Control: Iran is moving to formalize its management of the Strait of Hormuz, with a bill aimed at requiring ships to follow designated routes and obtain authorization, while also collecting fees tied to navigation, security and environmental costs—despite US warnings about “tolls” and a blockade that Washington says remains in place. Nuclear Safety Warning: UN nuclear chief Rafael Grossi warned that attacks on nuclear power plants are becoming a dangerous “pattern,” citing incidents including near Iran’s Bushehr and stressing the potential radiological stakes. Climate Legal Push: A UN resolution backed by more than two-thirds of member states affirms an ICJ ruling that countries have a legal duty to limit global warming to the Paris 1.5°C goal, setting up future climate litigation. Energy Prices & Air Pollution: Oil prices slid on ceasefire hopes, while reports also highlighted toxic fumes from Tehran oil fires affecting a large area—showing how the Iran conflict keeps feeding both fuel shocks and pollution risks. Drone Governance: Iran’s Defense Ministry says it will set up a drone support center to regulate civilian drone services alongside military use.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi met Oman’s Badr Albusaidi to discuss regional security and how to manage the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran uncertainty, with both sides stressing stability and international law. EU Condemnation: The EU strongly censured Iran’s attack on Kuwait, calling it a violation of Kuwait’s sovereignty and urging full respect for international law while backing de-escalation. Energy Shock Watch: Oil prices slid to a six-week low as traders weighed possible US-Iran ceasefire progress, while markets stayed jittery over supply risks. Climate & Clean Energy: A new report says Europe saved about $51bn (€51.4bn) in 2025 by cutting fossil fuel imports through renewables—an energy-security boost as the Iran war destabilises supplies. Water Stress in Iran War Fallout: Reports warn Iranians to conserve water as sanctions and decades of mismanagement push the water crisis toward collapse. Local Environment Angle: California regulators approved a carbon-market overhaul that could shift billions in free pollution permits toward refineries, drawing sharp criticism from environmental groups.

Strait of Hormuz & Energy Security: Iran says it may start charging for “navigation and maritime security services” in the Strait of Hormuz, warning that decades of free support are over as tensions with the US and Israel continue—raising fresh concerns for global shipping costs and fuel supplies. Shipping Risk: Chevron CEO Mike Wirth cautioned that attacks on vessels in the Persian Gulf are still happening, even amid peace-deal hopes, and shipowners/insurers must feel safe before traffic resumes. Water Stress in Iran: A new report highlights Tehran’s worsening water crisis, with reservoirs reported near-empty in late 2025 and taps nearly running dry—showing how conflict and mismanagement are compounding environmental collapse. Food & Fertilizer Fallout: The Iran war is blamed for a fertilizer supply shock, with disruptions to key fertilizer inputs (including urea and sulfur) threatening food security and keeping prices elevated into 2026. Climate & Air Pollution: Satellite tracking and reporting point to toxic sulfur pollution after attacks on Iranian oil facilities, adding another layer to health and environmental damage. Regional Humanitarian Pressure: UN warnings say Yemen is edging toward collapse, with millions needing aid as conflict and funding shortfalls deepen.

UN Diplomacy: Iran’s UN envoy Amir-Saeid Iravani warned that unilateralism and coercive measures are undermining global governance, fueling poverty, debt, climate change, digital divides and wars. Strait of Hormuz & Shipping: Reports say US and Iranian negotiators have a tentative 60-day ceasefire extension MoU, but Trump approval is still pending and Iran has signaled it won’t give up control over Hormuz—while strikes on ships keep maritime risk high. Energy & Climate Pressure: The Iran war is worsening heat and energy stress across Asia, with record power demand in India and rising fuel costs; in Europe, the EU is considering a three-year methane-penalty waiver for oil and gas firms to protect supply during the crisis. Water & Food Security: Iranians are being urged to conserve water amid sanctions and mismanagement, while food-price risks are rising as El Niño and the Iran conflict strain supply chains. Aviation Fuel Fallout (UK): Britain faces aviation fuel shortages and is importing jet fuel linked to Russian oil after refinery closures, drawing criticism over energy security and environmental impacts. Health in Conflict: Human Rights Watch marked a decade since UN Resolution 2286, saying attacks on hospitals and healthcare workers remain alarmingly common.

Strait of Hormuz Pressure: The US and Iran reportedly agreed on a 60-day ceasefire extension and a path to nuclear talks, but Washington is also warning Oman against any role in a Strait of Hormuz “tolling” scheme—pushing back hard on any payments system that could disrupt shipping. Air Pollution From Attacks: A new remote-sensing analysis estimates a single day of refinery strikes in Iran released sulfur dioxide at levels comparable to a volcanic eruption, with the toxic plume traveling far and raising concerns about health impacts and polluted “black rain.” Plastic Waste in Iraq: Iraq’s plastic tide is worsening as consumption rises and recycling stays below 20%, with much waste ending in unregulated dumpsites—especially along the Tigris and Euphrates. Energy Security & Climate Risk: The IEA warns the Iran-war fuel disruption could trigger the biggest-ever energy security crisis, while economists flag Hormuz disruption as a driver of higher inflation and possible food fallout. Regional Diplomacy: Iran’s Supreme Leader directed parliament to prioritize post-war economic stability—inflation control, liquidity management, and reconstruction provisions—signaling a shift toward economic consolidation.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran and the U.S. exchanged strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington saying drones were intercepted near Bandar Abbas and Tehran claiming retaliation—raising fears the fragile ceasefire could unravel and keep energy supplies tight. Food & Fuel Cost Pressure: The Iran war’s ripple effects are showing up in groceries and household budgets, with analysts warning food prices could stay elevated as fuel and fertiliser costs remain high. Heat, Drought, and Wildfire Risk: Britain is being warned it’s “sleepwalking into a food crisis” as extreme weather hits crops and livestock, while the Iran war keeps fuel and fertiliser expensive. Maritime “Fees” Debate: Iran’s push to charge for “navigational services” through Hormuz is being framed as a potential flashpoint for global shipping—on top of the military risk. Local Impacts in Iran’s Neighborhood: Kuwait reported drone attacks on power and oil infrastructure during ceasefire talks, underscoring how quickly the conflict can spill into energy systems. Energy Security Link: ASEAN leaders stressed food security can’t be separated from fuel security as Iran-related energy shocks threaten regional supply chains.